Likud Divided Over Turnout Fears

Israeli voters will cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, under a divided Likud banner. Party insiders report a sharp internal split over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's odds of victory. One faction leans on optimistic internal forecasts, while another cites aggressive spending by organizations supporting rival parties as a major threat to turnout.

The confidence of the optimistic camp rests on the work of Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud's internal polling. A party source described the internal mood as polarized. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said. The source characterized the reliance on Filber's data as binary: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

Critics within the party point to a wave of spending by nonprofits and other organizations that are not directly funded by political parties. These groups are deploying social media campaigns, roadside signage, and field events to boost participation among voters opposed to Netanyahu. The efforts also include rides for Arab voters and campaigns to encourage Israelis living abroad to return and vote.

A Likud source labeled the activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The party argues these organizations provide an extensive support network that exists outside the rules governing party financing. Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on campaign video limits and public resource usage while overlooking these external spending efforts. However, party sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or proof that the activity violated the law.

As the vote approaches, Likud is organizing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day. The strategy focuses on preventing right-wing votes from drifting to smaller parties. Negotiations to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, to drop out of the race failed. Winter is a former Givati Brigade commander who received backing from Rabbi Eli Sadan after talks with Likud.

Likud is also courting supporters of the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. In a related development, Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already exited the race. This followed talks with Likud where both sides discussed potential legislation allowing the Ahi party to name a deputy minister. The election date was set for October 27 to allow Netanyahu's government to complete its full term.

A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided.