Israel's Election: Three Seats and One Former PM May Decide the Government

Less than 24 hours before Israelis cast their ballots, political analysts point to two narrow paths that could determine the country's next government. Neither path relies on a sweeping victory by either major bloc. Instead, the outcome may hinge on the votes of three ultra-Orthodox legislators and the decision of a former prime minister to cross political lines.

Assessments within the political establishment indicate that Agudat Yisrael, the faction led by MK Yitzhak Goldknopf, is exploring backing for an opposition-led cabinet. This group holds exactly three seats in the Knesset. The proposed arrangement would likely involve budgetary agreements in exchange for their support. However, even with this backing, the new government might still require votes from Arab parties to secure a majority.

The potential for such a shift stems from internal friction within United Torah Judaism. Tensions have risen between Agudat Yisrael and the rival faction Degel Hatorah regarding the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Maariv reported in August that Agudat Yisrael was considering new options, including cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando expressed doubts about maintaining the current commitment to the Likud-led bloc, adding uncertainty to the haredi-Likud alliance.

Goldknopf faces a specific hurdle with his electorate. His voters are largely aligned with the Right. Political assessments suggest that any visible support for a change bloc government could drive some of his constituents toward Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This risk complicates his ability to negotiate a deal with the opposition without losing his base.

If neither bloc secures the 61 seats needed for a Knesset majority, attention turns to Naftali Bennett. Political circles suggest he might join a Netanyahu-led government in that scenario. This is considered a remote possibility, but some view Bennett as the only change bloc leader with the right-wing background to make such a move. His current party structure would complicate the transition.

Avigdor Liberman was also mentioned as a potential bridge figure, given his history of serving as defense minister in a Netanyahu government. However, current assessments place him far from such a move due to personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. For now, these remain scenarios rather than agreed-upon deals.

The election takes place on October 26, 2026. The final vote count will determine whether these narrow calculations become reality or if the country faces another round of uncertainty.