Trump's 2024 base weakens before midterms

President Donald Trump’s support among the demographic groups that propelled him to victory in 2024 has declined sharply, according to a new national survey. The data suggests the coalition that secured his second term is no longer as solid as it was during the election campaign. This shift poses a challenge for Republican congressional candidates facing voters in November.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey, conducted between October 14 and 18, indicates a notable drop in the president’s net approval rating among key voting blocs. Among Latino voters, net approval has fallen from negative 22 to negative 38 since the start of his second term. For adults aged 18 to 34, the rating has declined from negative 28 to negative 53. Black respondents show a similar downward trend, moving from negative 55 to negative 67.

These declines are reflected in the overall approval numbers for registered voters. The president’s net approval rating has dropped from negative 7 at the beginning of his current term to negative 19 in the most recent findings. Even among self-described Trump supporters, approval has receded from a net positive 85 in 2025 to a net positive 65. In the South, a historically reliable region for Republicans, net approval has turned negative, shifting from positive 2 to negative 20.

Economic factors are driving much of this dissatisfaction. The president’s net economic approval rating has plunged to negative 31 in the latest data, down from negative 21 in the first quarter of 2026. Disapproval of his economic handling reached 65 percent, the highest level recorded by CNBC for any president since Barack Obama. This rise in economic pessimism coincided with increased public attention to inflation and incidents involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers.

Despite the erosion of support among specific groups, the president retains strong backing within the core Republican base. Republicans in the survey gave him an 82 percent approval rating, while those identifying with the MAGA movement reported a 90 percent approval rate. However, interest in the upcoming election is 10 percentage points lower among Republicans than among Democrats, a gap that could affect turnout in close races.

The survey, which polled 1,000 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, was co-led by Democratic firm Hart Research Associates and Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies. The findings suggest that while Republicans maintain a preference for their party controlling Congress, the enthusiasm gap and economic concerns present a complex landscape for the midterm elections scheduled for next week.