Lula Pulls Ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil Runoff as Voting Extension Sparks Dispute

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva moved ahead of right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in Sunday's presidential runoff, with roughly half of the votes counted. Ballots from left-leaning states in Lula's northeastern stronghold had begun arriving in large numbers.

Pollsters said turnout higher than expected appeared to help Lula. Andrei Roman, CEO of the pollster AtlasIntel, told Reuters that Lula would be re-elected. The federal electoral court had not yet declared a winner, but allies of Lula were already claiming victory on social media.

The shape of the count followed a familiar pattern. Conservative candidates in Brazil tend to do well early, while leftist candidates gain ground as results from the poorer, more populous northeastern states come in later. Lula began strongly and was overtaken by Bolsonaro, but he regained the lead with about 50% of votes counted at 8:30 p.m. in Brasília.

The count unfolded after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin, formerly Lula's lawyer, granted a request from Lula's campaign to extend voting. The campaign pointed to public transportation problems in three cities in the state of Bahia. The decision arrived around the 5 p.m. Brasília closing time, causing confusion because some polling stations had already shut.

In a follow-up ruling, Zanin said stations that had closed would stay closed, so authorities could start tallying their votes. Stations that had not closed after the official cutoff could keep receiving voters for two more hours. The ruling led the electoral court, known as the TSE, to pause the count for two hours.

The pause adds uncertainty to an electoral process still dealing with the aftermath of 2022, when Jair Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat to Lula. His supporters later stormed government buildings, and he received a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup. Two legal experts told Reuters that the longer voting hours and the transportation allegations could prompt legal challenges. "Depending on the election result, there is a possibility that the losing side might attempt to contest the outcome, arguing that many people were unable to vote even with the extended deadline," said Vera Chemim, a constitutional lawyer in São Paulo.

Eduardo Bolsonaro, the senator's brother, questioned on a YouTube live stream why the Supreme Court had ruled on a matter overseen by the electoral court. "Strange, isn't it?" he said, adding that it was hard to imagine the legal basis and that the move "doesn't inspire credibility."

Lula had asked electoral authorities to extend voting in at least nine states after his campaign alleged that some officials cut election-day public transportation. Earlier on Sunday, a court in Bahia ordered the arrest of a senior transportation official in Salvador over allegations that he directed a reduction in the city's bus fleet. Before Zanin's decision, Lula said "something abominable is happening" in the election. Flávio Bolsonaro also sought an extension in at least three states, citing bad weather.

Lula and his allies see the runoff as a chance to halt Latin America's conservative drift. Reuters reported on Saturday on a campaign within the US State Department to help return the Bolsonaros to power. President Donald Trump has not endorsed a candidate and declined to say whom he hoped would win. "I don't want to get into that, but we are watching," he told reporters in Washington.