UK Aid Budget Set to Miss 2027 Target by £400m

The UK government will likely fall short of its international aid spending target for 2027 by an estimated 400 million pounds, new calculations show. The Center for Global Development (CGD) determined that current forecasts imply the nation will spend only 0.29% of its national income on aid next year. This figure sits below the 0.3% goal set by the Treasury.

Researchers at the CGD analyzed the central forecast used in the Treasury's comparison of independent experts. Their analysis indicates a 410 million pound deficit against the planned budget. The group noted that a larger shortfall of 580 million pounds is also possible. Even the most conservative estimate projects a gap of 250 million pounds.

Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD, described the gap as a material reduction in the spending power of UK aid. He stated that closing a 400 million pound gap could halve the planned cuts to Africa. Mitchell warned that these reductions are likely to cost thousands of lives. He characterized the trend as a de facto exit from the south and east of the continent.

The CGD attributed the shortfall to two primary factors. Inflation has risen higher than expected, increasing national income beyond the figures used in the 2025 spending review. A policy change in 2025 affecting the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office budget also contributed to the discrepancy. The researchers urged ministers to add funds for international aid in the upcoming budget to avoid criticism for missing a publicly stated goal.

The 2027 target of 0.3% is well below the 0.7% commitment made in Labour's election manifesto. Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowered the target to free up resources for defence spending. Fleur Anderson, a former minister and member of the foreign affairs select committee, said she wants to see higher aid spending in the budget. She noted that the government should at least hit the reduced target that was set.

Anderson argued that falling short is not an abstract accounting issue. She pointed to communities without clean water, girls leaving school, undelivered vaccines, and cuts to peace programmes in war zones. Charities have previously warned that deep aid cuts will damage children's education and raise the risk of disease in some African countries. FCDO figures released in September showed that the cuts hit the world's poorest nations hardest. Funding to least-developed and low-income countries fell by 6.7%, or 118 million pounds.

The UK's overall official development assistance budget dropped to 0.44% of gross national income in 2025. This represents a fall of 987 million pounds from the 0.5% level in 2024. The government has prioritised funding through multilateral bodies such as the International Development Association and Gavi. It has also maintained humanitarian support. Meanwhile, the Conservatives and Reform UK have pledged to cut aid from about 9 billion pounds a year to 1 billion pounds.

An FCDO spokesperson said the multi-year aid allocations published in March 2026 set out spending plans for the next three financial years. These plans were based on gross national income at the time of the 2025 spending review. The spokesperson stated that moving to a fixed budget reduces volatility. This approach provides the necessary stability to deliver high-impact aid programmes.